The Real Reason Why Movies Are Flopping

The
consistently
heavy
downpour
of
films,
shows,
events,
videos
and
whatnot
is
causing
economic
disruption.

Every
year,
there
are
a
few
months
when
the
death
knell
of
the
film
business
is
sounded.

The


first
six
months
of
this
year
have
been
such
a
period.
But
just
as
media
reports
were
talking
of
the
industry’s
trauma,
along
came
Aditya
Sarpotdar’s

Munjya
and
Nag
Ashwin’s

Kalki
2898
AD.
They
have
broken
the
dry
spell
with
good
box
office
performances.
Movies
are
back
in
business.

Of
the
several
reasons
for
the
somewhat
dull
first
half,
the
most
important
is
windows.

India,
the
world’s
largest
film-making
country,
released
close
to
1,800
films
in
2023.

The
number
ranges
from
1,700
to
1,900
in
most
years,
with
the
exception
of
the
pandemic
years.

There
are,
however,
only
52
weekends
in
a
year.

How
many
of
these
1,800
films
can
get
a
good
weekend
to
release,
find
their
audience,
and
make
money?

Of
the
52
weekends,
take
a
few
out
for
big
events
such
as
cricket
matches,
elections,
exams
or
vacations.
That
leaves
40
weekends.

Divide
the
1,800
films
released
in
2023
by
the
estimated
40
weeks
available
—
that
is
45
films
a
week
being
released.

Note
that
this
is
across
languages.
That
means
some
of
these
films
may
be
just
for
the
Tamil
Nadu
or
Maharashtra
or
Punjab
markets.

That
is
still
a
lot
of
films
fighting
for
a
single,
decent
window
to
release
in.

Incidentally,
Hollywood,
the
most
developed
market,
averages
fewer
films
at
500-600
a
year,
but
faces
the
same
issues.

To
this
rush
for
a
good
weekend
in
2024,
add
a
booming
market
for
live
events
with
Ed
Sheeran,
Lollapalooza,
Vir
Das
and
a
host
of
other
performances
scheduled
across
the
country,
all
on
weekends.

Add
an
Indian
Premier
League
with
some
great
cricket
over
10
weeks
and
a
general
election
that
went
on
for
over
seven
weeks.
It
probably
left
less
than
30
weekends
for
release
in
many
markets
in
India
this
year.

This
is
not
just
about
films.

The
question
of
windows
is
something
the
entire
Rs
2.3
trillion
media
and
entertainment
business
needs
to
grapple
with.

At
Rs
19,700
crore
(Rs
197
billion)
in
total
revenue
(including
box
office,
streaming
and
TV),
film
is
just
about
8.5
per
cent
of
the
total.

But
it
illustrates
the
point
—
the
consistently
heavy
downpour
of
films,
shows,
events,
videos
and
whatnot
is
causing
economic
disruption
too.

The
question
of
a
good
release
window
for
‘a’
film
is
pivotal
if
you
want
to
address
the
issue
of
discoverability.

Only
if
a
film
opens
on
a
reasonably
open
weekend,
does
it
have
a
chance
of
success,
monetary
and
critical.

If
something
is
not
seen
or
heard,
it
has
little
chance
of
making
money.
This
is
a
challenge
faced
by
musicians,
actors,
and
writers
—
even
as
their
work
multiplies,
their
incomes
don’t.

Then
there
is
the
question
of
a
streamlined
release
calendar.

If
films
are
spaced
such
that
they
release
at
regular
intervals
through
the
year,
the
theatres
and
the
whole
ecosystem
remains
monetarily
hydrated.

Through
April
and
May,
several
films,
including

Kalki,
were
postponed
to
avoid
clashing
with
the
IPL
and
elections.

This
left
theatres
with
very
little
to
screen.

To
this
crowding
around
a
window
to
release
or
showcase
a
film,
add
another
set
of
windows.
The
time
gap
between
a
film’s
release
theatrically
and
its
release
on
other
formats
(TV,
OTT)
—
also
called
a
‘window’.

At
roughly
two-thirds
of
the
total
revenue
that
any
film
makes,
theatrical
releases
are
the
lifeblood
of
the
film
business.
They
are
also
the
single
most
important
factor
in
determining
its
price
for
streaming
or
television.
A
film
that
doesn’t
do
well
at
the
theatres,
doesn’t
get
a
good
price.

In
India,
the
window
between
theatrical
and
streaming
is
eight
weeks
and
between
theatrical
and
television
is
12.

Since
the
audience
knows
this,
it
is
indifferent
about
missing
smaller,
non-spectacle
films
in
the
theatre.
This
does
not
give
slow-burners
such
as

12th
Fail
or

Laapata
Ladies
time
to
receive
their
due.

Vidhu
Vinod
Chopra’s

12th
Fail
tells
the
heart-warming,
true
story
of
Manoj
Kumar
Sharma’s
journey
from
Chambal
to
Gwalior
to
Delhi,
the
soul-crushing
poverty
he
deals
with
while
attempting
the
various
exams
for
Indian
Police
Service.

It
was
a
surprise
hit
in
2023
getting
Rs
70
crore
(Rs
700
million)
in
just
theatrical
collections.
Some
of
the
best
minds
in
the
business
reckon
if
it
had
not
released
on
OTT,
even
while
it
was
running
in
the
theatres,
it
would
have
crossed
Rs
120
to
Rs
130
crore
(Rs
1.2
million
to
Rs
1.3
billion)
in
gross
collection
at
the
box
office.

However,
many
of
the
streaming
deals
are
made
while
a
film
is
under
production
as
the
maker
needs
working
capital.
Therefore,
those
release
dates
are
contractual.

Again
this
is
not
just
about
films.

The
democratisation
of
the
Internet
and
social
media
have
brought
is
now
playing
out
in
full
glory.

There
is
a
deluge
of
shows,
films,
and
videos
across
the
world.
We
are
floating
in
a
sea
of
‘content’
and
have
only
24
hours
to
see
it.

Where
in
this
deluge
is
the
right
opportunity
to
drop
a
video
on
YouTube
or
a
high-cost
show
or
film
on
streaming?

Industry
insiders
already
talk
of
streaming
platforms
either
postponing
or
advancing
the
release
of
a
show
or
a
film
to
catch
a
less
crowded
week.

Almost
makes
you
long
for
the
days
when
a
film
was
celebrated
only
upon
reaching
its
silver
jubilee
—
that
is,
when
it
crossed
25
weeks
of
continuous
screening
in
theatres
—
and
then
fell
out
of
sight
until
you
saw
it
on
Doordarshan.